Nearby sunflower prices were down $1.25 to unchanged this week at the crush plants. New crop prices were unchanged to up $1.00 per cwt. USDA published their first look at farmer surveyed yields in the August WASDE report. To be sure, those yield estimates will change in the coming months, especially as harvest activity ramps up. However, the market is finally moving into the point of the year when they can start to nail down new crop supply estimates with a little more certainty than what has been floating in the markets up until this point. Soybean production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 4.52 billion bushels. That would be the largest crop in U.S. history. Harvested area is forecast to be 85.8 million acres, up 5.4 million acres from 2025. Domestic end stocks came in at 320 million bushels (mb). USDA sees total supplies up slightly at 4.869 billion bushels (bb). Crush demand increased to 2.78 bb, while exports remained unchanged at 1.66 mb. Seed use is forecast at 73 mb and residual at 37 mb. In the initial USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) reported acres figures, oil-type sunflower planted acreage was pegged at 1,198,181 acres with confection acres at 112,913. FSA will update the acreage report in mid-September. USDA will provide their initial yield and production estimates for 2026 oil-type and confection sunflower crops in October. Near term, USDA crop progress reports and weather conditions will guide the market.
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