The high oleic sunflower market has been very firm, with prices nearly $2.00/cwt higher than year ago levels. New crop 2026 contract prices are also higher than last year. There was nothing bullish about the November USDA reports. Nearly every number they released was higher than the average trade figure. The same was true from a world perspective. Soybean ending supplies were cut by five million bushels. Smaller soybean production was offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in the export forecast. The reason for the steep decline in soybean exports is the absence of China as a buyer. There are currently zero soybean sales to China registered with the USDA. The Trump/Xi meeting at the end of October reportedly resulted in China agreeing to purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year, followed by 25 MMTs per year for the next three years. Some traders think it will be difficult, if not impossible, to accomplish the 12 MMT sales goal with none on the books yet. China has been a very aggressive buyer of soybeans from Brazil over the past several months. Some traders think China is done buying beans for this year. USDA did not release a sunflower production estimate in the November report. They typically do that in the October report. It is now uncertain when or if they will release a production estimate. Based on experience it might not happen until final estimates are released in January.
ADM Enderlin, Cargill West Fargo and Colorado Mills crush plants are offering 2026 new crop cash and Act of God (AOG) High Oleic contracts. ADM is at $22.80 cash and $22.30 AOG. Cargill is at $22.70 cash and $22.20 AOG. Colorado Mills is at $23.00 AOG. Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflowers. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt. The AOG $22.20-$22.30 contract increases to a range of $24.45-$24.55, and the cash $22.70-$23.00 contract moves up to $25.00-$25.30.
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