Per Oil World, global sunflower production for 2025/26, is estimated at 56.96 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a recovery of only 1.6 MMT from last year’s low level. Back in June, initial production estimates were in the range of 60-61 MMT. Sunflower seed production is turning out sharply below earlier expectations, primarily in the Black Sea region. Oil World made downward revisions for Russia, Ukraine and some European Union member countries due to reports about considerably lower than expected yields per hectare. Sunflower production in the European Union is not coming up to expectations as well. Harvest was not complete but yield reports resulted in Oil World reducing its production estimate to only 8.56 MMT, the smallest in nine years and even down slightly from last year’s drought, reduced 8.67 MMT. Currently the estimate for Argentina’s sunflower seed crop is at 5.5 MMT for early 2026.

We are looking for research papers to be presented at the NSA Research Forum, set for January 7-8, 2026, in Fargo, ND. Presentations may be either oral or in the form of a poster. A time will be designated for authors to be with their posters and answer questions. Each oral presentation will be limited to 15-17 minutes with 2-3 minutes allowed for questions. Visit 2026 Call for Papers if you are interested in presenting a paper. You do not have to submit the actual paper or poster at this time, just the information indicated online and the author information. Submissions must be completed by December 8, 2025.

The high oleic market at crush plants has been very firm, with prices $1.60-$1.70 higher than year ago levels. New crop 2026 contract prices are also higher than last year. There was nothing bullish about the November USDA reports. Nearly every number they released was higher than the average trade figure. The same was true from a world perspective. Soybean ending supplies were cut by five million bushels. Smaller soybean production was offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in the export forecast. The reason for the steep decline in soybean exports is the absence of China as a buyer. There are currently zero soybean sales to China registered with the USDA. The Trump/Xi meeting at the end of October reportedly resulted in China agreeing to purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year, followed by 25 MMTs per year for the next three years. Some traders think it will be difficult, if not impossible, to accomplish the 12 MMT sales goal with none on the books yet. China has been a very aggressive buyer of soybeans from Brazil over the past several months. Some traders think China is done buying beans for this year. USDA did not release a sunflower production estimate in the November report. They typically do that in the October report. It is now uncertain when or if they will release a production estimate. Based on experience it might not happen until final estimates are released in January.

As the 2025 growing season comes to an end, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will contact producers nationwide to gather final year-end crop production numbers and the amount of grain and oilseeds stored on their farms. At the same time, NASS will survey grain facility operators to determine year-end off-farm grain and oilseed stocks. Responses to the survey will be used in calculating county-level yields, which have a direct impact on farmers. USDA’s Farm Service Agency may use the data in administering producer programs and in determining disaster assistance program calculations. All responses are completely confidential. Survey results will be published in several reports, including the Crop Production Annual Summary and the quarterly Grain Stocks report, both to be released in January. These and all NASS reports are available online at  www.nass.usda.gov.

Landry, SD grower, Shannon Depoy says he finished harvesting his sunflower, as has everyone in his area. He is just finishing up harvesting his corn. He says his moisture levels were around 10 % with a test weight of 28-30 lbs. He says his yields are about average. The fall weather started out very wet but has been nice the last several weeks.

January 7-8, 2026 - NSA Research Forum; Holiday Inn; Fargo, ND 

June 23-25, 2026 - NSA Summer Seminar; Deadwood, SD

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