The sunflower market has traded sideways the past three weeks. Ample supplies and strong deliveries by producers has kept the pipeline full at the crush plants. Old and new crop prices were down 5 cents to unchanged this week. At the CBoT, talk that wet weather could reduce US final corn and spring wheat acres has offered resistance to soybean prices. Traders are thinking that If US farmers are unable to plant intended corn and spring wheat acres they could shift to soybeans. US/World 2017/18 soybean supply outlook already looks burdensome and this would add to the stockpile. Markets were also rattled this week when it was announced that President Trump was going to sign an executive order that would start the process of US pulling out of NAFTA. Prices plunged on this rumor but the Trump administration later backtracked from that position in phone calls to the leaders of Canada and Mexico. On the plus side, the value of the dollar fell against a basket of currencies to the lowest level since November this week. This is bullish for agricultural commodities that are traded in dollars as it gives overseas buyers more purchasing power and could lead to an increase in exports. Weather remains the biggest short term question mark for traders right now and will guide the market in the week ahead.
Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a $16.50 contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt and would raise the cash price to $18.15. An AOG contract at $16.00 per hundredweight to $17.60.