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 Get a Jump on 2001 Hybrid Selection October 2000 Profitable sunflower production the last few years might be summed up by the following equation: cash price + LDP - cost of production + oil premium (and NuSun premium) = profit. That is, sell a certain number of pounds per acre and lock in a good LDP to cover production costs. Profit comes from the oil and/or NuSun premiums. This equation will certainly be at the heart of hybrid selection for the 2001 growing season, says Jerry Miller, research geneticist at the USDA-ARS Northern Crop Science Lab, Fargo, N.D. Hybrid performance (yield potential, oil content, maturity, stalk strength, and pest tolerance or resistance) and production conditions this year will serve as a guide for seed companies to determine what hybrids to sell/resell in 2001, and for producers, what hybrids to grow. Evaluate as much performance information as possible, advises Kathleen Grady, South Dakota State University oilseed breeder. Yield trial results from university experiment stations, commercial company trials, strip tests, and demonstration plots will identify hybrids that are consistently high yielding, she says. Give more weight to information from trials or fields close to home, and compare relative performance over many locations and years. Compare as many trials as possible, since it is unlikely that environmental conditions of any particular test will be repeated in any future year. Aside from agronomic considerations, there will be cases where availability of seed or an outlet to sell the harvested crop will dictate selection of hybrid type. Miller points to one N.D. producer this year whose oil sunflower acreage was half conventional hybrids, half NuSun. "His local elevator started buying NuSun for the first time. If that elevator wouldn't have bought the crop or offered a premium, I don't think that grower would have planted NuSun this year," he says. Fact is, however, that most country elevators in sunflower-producing areas are buying NuSun, and have become equipped with refractometers to test whether sunflower is NuSun or traditional linoleic when harvested seed is hauled in. About 50 million pounds of NuSun were produced in 1998, the first year of commercial production, and supplies are expected to exceed 700-800 million pounds following the 2000 crop year. Industry experts say that while NuSun accounts for about one-third of oil sunflower acreage this year, it will be over half and as much as two-thirds of the crop in 2001 (see chart on page 10). Hybrid Selection Checklist Courtesy of Miller, Grady, and several of the region's top private sunflower breeders, here are a few notes to keep in mind as you go through the checklist in reviewing hybrid performance this year, and in selecting hybrids for next year. Yield - Performance averaged over many tests is called "yield stability." Good yield stability means that a hybrid may or may not be the best yielder at all locations, but that it does rank high in yielding potential at many locations. A hybrid that ranks in the upper 20% at all locations exhibits better yield stability than one that is the top yielder at two locations, but ranks in the lower 40% at two other locations. Public and private breeders alike say that many NuSun hybrids are yielding similarly to most conventional oil hybrids, and will only improve as NuSun hybrids continue to be developed. In the event your NuSun hybrid didn't yield as well as your conventional oil hybrid this year, then shop around for a different NuSun hybrid. Oil Content/Composition - Select a high-oil hybrid over a low -oil hybrid with the same yield potential, but don't sacrifice yield in favor of oil content. The oilseed sunflower market pays a premium based on market price for over 40% oil (at 10% moisture) and discounts for oil less than 40%. Some companies offer guarantees for NuSun oleic levels. As NuSun hybrid performance data builds each year, be certain to evaluate dependability or consistency of oleic levels for different NuSun hybrids. Maturity- Be realistic of your expected planting date, and mindful of the average killing frost in your area. Full-maturing hybrids generally yield higher than early hybrids. Maturity is especially important if planting is delayed. Often, with delayed planting, only an early hybrid will mature and exhibit its full yield potential. Yield, oil content, and test weight often are reduced when a hybrid is damaged by frost before it is fully mature. An earlier hybrid will likely be drier at harvest than a later hybrid, thus reducing drying costs. Consider planting hybrids with different maturity dates as a production hedge to spread risk, drydown and workload. Moisture Content -Harvesting sunflower at moisture contents as high as 20-25% may reduce bird damage and seed shattering loss during harvest. Seed must then be dried to 9.5% or less for storage. Disease Tolerance -The most economical and effective means of sunflower disease control is the planting of resistant or tolerant hybrids and a minimum of four years rotation between successive sunflower crops. Most sunflower hybrids in the United States have resistance to Verticillium wilt, races 1 and 2 of downy mildew, and to two or more races of rust. Consult the seed company for information on the reaction of a particular hybrid to these and other diseases that may pose a risk in your growing area. Self-pollination (or self-compatibility), recommended to be at least 90%, is another trait to keep in mind. It refers to the ability of the plant to pollinate itself despite unfavorable conditions for pollination. Making Sense of the Statistics "Expected mean" in plot trial information simply refers to the average performance number for a particular trait of all hybrids evaluated in the trial. To determine if one hybrid is better than another for a given trait, use the least significant difference value at the bottom of each data table, often listed as LSD .05 or LSD 5%. This is a statistical way to indicate if a trait like yield differs when comparing two hybrids. If two hybrids differ by more than the indicated LSD 5% value for a given trait, they would most likely differ again when grown under similar conditions. If two hybrids differ by less than the LSD for a particular trait, than there's no statistical difference. For example, let's say a performance trial table indicates one hybrid yielded 2,600 lbs/acre, compared to another hybrid in the same plot that yielded 2,310 lbs/acre. If the LSD for this particular plot trial data is 407 lbs/acre, there is no statistical difference in yield between the two varieties. If the oil content percentage for one hybrid is 44 compared to 41 for another, and the LSD is 2.3, the first hybrid can be expected to have a higher oil content than the second hybrid, under similar growing conditions. The coefficient of variability (C.V. %) listed at the bottom of each data table is a relative measure of the amount of variation or consistency recorded for a particular trait, expressed as a percentage of the mean. Generally, trials with low C.V. rates are more reliable for making hybrid choices than trials with higher C.V. rates. Trials with C.V. rates below 15-20% are generally considered to be reliable for comparing yield. - Tracy Sayler - Calculating Sunflower Gross Revenue - Use this worksheet to estimate and compare gross revenue expected from conventional oil sunflower and/or NuSun hybrids on the market for 2001. Estimated Gross Revenue - Traditional Sunflower Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x cash price Yield (lbs./acre) _____ x Cash price $______ = $ ______ CR Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2% x CR Oil %_____ - 40 = _____ x 2 % x CR______ = $ _____ OP Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP Yield (lbs./acre) _______ x LDP = $ _______LDP Total Gross Revenue = $ _______ Estimated Gross Revenue - NuSun Sunflower Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x NuSun cash price Yield (lbs./acre) _____ x NuSun cash price $_____ = $ _____ CR Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2 % x CR Oil %_____ - 40 = _____ x 2 % x CR_____ = $_____ OP LDP = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP Yield (lbs./acre) _______ x LDP = $ _______ LDP Total Gross Revenue = $ _______ CALCULATION EXAMPLES* * Using LDP and cash price at Enderlin, N.D., as of 10/15/00. Estimated Gross Revenue - Traditional Sunflower Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x cash price (¢/lb.) Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x Cash price $ .0555 = $ 111.00 CR Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2% x CR Oil % 45 - 40 = 5 x 2% x CR $ 111.00 = $ 11.10 OP Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x LDP $ 4.25 = $ 85.00 LDP Total Gross Revenue = $ 207.10 Estimated Gross Revenue - NuSun Sunflower Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x NuSun cash price (¢/lb.) Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x NuSun cash price $ .0615 = $ 123.00 CR Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2 % x CR Oil % 45 - 40 = 5 x 2 % x CR $ 123.00 = $ 12.30 OP LDP = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x LDP $ 4.25 = $85.00 LDP Total Gross Revenue = $ 220.30  Back to Planting Systems Stories Back to Archive Categories
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